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No. 92 - The PRC's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan, and the Republic of Korea: A Comparative Analysis Gemma Estrada, Donghyun Park, Innwon Park, and Soonchan Park Abstract
The role of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in East Asia’s recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlighted the PRC’s growing role as an engine of growth for the region. From the viewpoint of the PRC, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of the PRC’s FTAs with the region’s major economies: PRC–ASEAN, PRC–Japan, PRC–Republic of Korea, and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of the FTAs on the PRC’s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that the PRC would gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from a larger region-wide FTA such as ASEAN+3.
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No. 91 - Is Trade in Asia Really Integrating? Shintaro Hamanaka Abstract
Is intraregional trade in Asia really integrating? It is not easy to answer this ostensibly simple question. There are two ways to assess the level of trade integration: de facto integration and de jure integration. With respect to de facto integration (actual level of interdependence in terms of trade flows), the answer depends on which Asian countries are being considered and which indicator is being using to measure trade interdependence. This paper compares the trade interdependence of different sets of Asian countries using various indices. With respect to de jure integration (the signing of free trade agreements [FTAs]), the number of signed FTAs in Asia is growing but the relation between trade interdependence and the signing of FTAs has not been sufficiently studied. The second half of this paper addresses whether de jure trade integration is ultimately brought about by high-level or low-level de facto trade integration.
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No. 90 - Intra-Asia Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods Hsiao Chink Tang Abstract
This paper examines the impact of intra-Asia exchange rate volatility on intra-Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods, and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the sub-region of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller sub-group excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region’s production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.
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No. 89 - Is Technical Assistance under Free Trade Agreements WTO-Plus? A Review of Japan–ASEAN Economic Partnership Agreements Shintaro Hamanaka Abstract
What kind of technical assistance and capacity building benefits do developing countries enjoy if they sign a free trade agreement (FTA) with developed countries? This is a frequently asked question among developing country officials involved in FTA policymaking. While we tend to normatively insist that an FTA should lead to a win–win situation for all contracting parties and that developed members should provide technical assistance to developing partners so that the latter can maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of an FTA, empirical assessments of technical assistance mechanisms under FTAs have not been thoroughly conducted. This paper presents a detailed textual analysis of World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreements and several FTAs in Asia, and identifies how much additional technical assistance developing member countries can enjoy if they enter into FTAs with developed countries.
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No. 88 - Utilizing the Multiple Mirror Technique to Assess the Quality of Cambodian Trade Statistics Shintaro Hamanaka Abstract
This paper assesses the quality of Cambodia’s export and import statistics by comparing them with the statistics of its trade partners. The paper identifies inaccuracies in trade statistics caused by two types of misclassifications: commodity misclassification and direction misclassification. We will thoroughly examine products that are misclassified as different (but similar) products as well as goods to or from a particular country that are misclassified as goods to or from another country. A single bilateral mirror comparison, which is common in the existing literature, does not tell us much about the manner in which misclassifications are committed. Even if we observe a large discrepancy in certain traded commodities between two sides, we cannot immediately conclude which side has generated the inaccurate statistic. In order to overcome this problem, the paper will use the multiple mirror comparison technique. By comparing the results of various bilateral mirror analyses of trade statistics, we can identify which direction and commodity misclassifications have been committed by Cambodia.
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No. 87 - The Role of the People's Republic of China in International Fragmentation and Production Networks: An Empirical Investigation Hyun-Hoon Lee, Donghyun Park, and Jing Wang Abstract
Despite the central role of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in global parts and components trade, most previous studies on the PRC’s parts and components trade have been limited to a particular trade partner or some specific industries. The central objective of this paper is to provide a more complete description of the PRC’s parts and components trade. To do so, we systematically separate total trade flows into parts and components and final goods, and give a description of the pattern of parts and components trade for the period 1992–2009. We then estimate a gravity model to examine the determinants of the PRC’s trade in parts and components. We find that the share of parts and components trade in the PRC’s total trade has grown rapidly.
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No. 86 - Impediments to Growth of the Garment and Food Industries in Cambodia: Exploring Potential Benefits of the ASEAN-PRC FTA Vannarith Chheang and Shintaro Hamanaka Abstract
This paper attempts to identify structural constraints to growth and exports within Cambodia’s key industries and to consider the policy actions needed to reduce obstacles to trade. The paper places special emphasis on Cambodia’s exports to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), given the major export opportunities arising from the free trade agreement (FTA) between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the PRC, known as the ASEAN–[People’s Republic of] China FTA (ACFTA). A qualitative case study method was applied at the firm-level by conducting face-to-face interviews to identify the impediments to the growth and exports of key industries in Cambodia, and to examine the opportunities and challenges presented by the ACFTA. This study covers the garment and food industries, which are critical to the economic development of Cambodia in the context of regional and global economic integration. The food industry, with its large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, has great potential for contributing to pro-poor growth in Cambodia, while the textile industry is the largest employer in the Cambodian labor force and is critical for poverty reduction efforts through export-led growth. The study also provides policy recommendations at both the industry and government levels.
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No. 85 - Institution Building for African Regionalism Gilbert M. Khadiagala Abstract
Since the 1960s, African states have embraced regional integration as a vital mechanism for political cooperation and for pooling resources to overcome problems of small and fragmented economies. In building meaningful institutions for regionalism, however, Africans have faced the challenges of reconciling the diversities of culture, geography, and politics. As a result, African regional institutions are characterized by multiple and competing mandates and weak institutionalization. This study illustrates these themes by comparing two continental institutions—the African Union and its predecessor, the Organization of African Unity, and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and subregional institutions—the Economic Commission of Central African States, the Economic Community of West African States, the Common Market for East and Southern African States, the Community of the Sahel-Saharan States, and the Arab Maghreb Union. By focusing on the institutional structures, mandates, and contributions of these organizations in their geographical domains, the study probes the links between policy articulation and outcomes. The conclusion focuses on lessons that African regionalism can inform Asian integration experiences.
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No. 84 - What Drives Different Types of Capital Flows and Their Volatilities in Developing Asia? Rogelio Mercado and Cyn-Young Park Abstract
Understanding the determinants of capital inflows is essential to designing an effective policy framework to manage volatile capital flows and their disruptive potential. This paper aims to identify factors that explain the size and volatility of various types of capital flows to developing Asia with regard to other emerging market economies. The estimates for a panel dataset show that per capita income growth, trade openness, and change in stock market capitalization are important determinants of capital inflows to developing Asia. Trade openness increases the volatility of all types of capital inflows, while change in stock market capitalization, global liquidity growth, and institutional quality lowers the volatility. A regional factor plays an important role in determining the size and volatility of capital inflows in emerging Europe and emerging Latin America, suggesting that regional economic cooperation and policy coordination may be an important element in designing a policy framework to manage capital inflows in emerging economies.
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No. 83 - The People’s Republic of China and India: Commercial Policies in the Giants Ganeshan Wignaraja Abstract
This paper analyses the link between commercial policies and exports through a comparative analysis of the Asian giants—the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India. While the PRC has surged ahead of India to dominate world manufactured exports, India has acquired competitive capabilities in skill-intensive services. Favorable initial conditions such as large domestic markets and low-cost productive labor have laid the foundations for the giants’ export success. While the gradual switch to marketoriented commercial policies in the late 1970s drove trade-led growth in the giants, the PRC’s reforms were swifter and more coordinated. It has introduced an open door policy towards foreign direct investment (FDI), actively facilitated technological upgrading trough FDI, steadily liberalized a controlled import regime, ensured a competitive exchange rate, and concluded more comprehensive free trade agreements (FTAs) with Asia’s developing economies. India has attempted to develop more effective commercial policies since 1991, especially to attract FDI and liberalize imports. Therefore, one might expect the gap in trade performance between the PRC and India to narrow over time. However, both giants face an uncertain world economic environment in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and future export success will depend on their evolving commercial policies. Critical issues that still to be resolved include how the giants will respond to the risk of protectionism, manage real exchange rates, promote the use of FTAs among businesses, and increase spending on infrastructure as well as research and development.
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