Asia Regional Integration Center

With visitors forecast to underpin one in 10 jobs within the decade, a joint approach—not winner-takes-all rivalry—offers not only growth but better protection against outside shocks.

Geopolitical tensions are again damaging travel and tourism in Asia and the Pacific—disrupting long-haul routes and hurting traveler sentiment, with the impact weighing most heavily on countries dependent on visitors from or transiting through the Middle East.

This comes as tourism in the region recovers from earlier shocks. The pandemic, trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine all hit travel demand, increased operating costs, forced changes to flight routes, and reshaped global tourism patterns—along with recovery trajectories.

The good news for Asia and the Pacific is that strong fundamentals, including a growing middle class, improved connectivity, and diverse offerings, provide the foundations for the greater resilience that the tourism sector clearly needs.

Tourism in the region has been recovering following the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, arrivals reached 96.3% of their level in 2019, from 78.8% in 2023. Better still, revenue was 5% above pre-pandemic levels as more, higher-spending tourists visited the region. The share of intra-Asia tourism flows remains substantial, accounting for around 65% of total travel in the region.

Performance varies across subregions: East Asia remains the largest contributor to arrivals and receipts in Asia, followed by Southeast Asia. The contribution of Central and West Asia is rising: its share in Asia’s total arrivals rose to 23.2% in 2024 from 17.8% in 2015. Intra-subregional travel is highest in East Asia (64%), followed by Southeast Asia (44%) and Central and West Asia (34%).

A core priority for sustaining this momentum is to move beyond building national competitiveness and strengthen cooperation at a bilateral or preferably regional level. By working together, destinations can scale solutions more effectively, harmonize policies, and reduce cross-border barriers, thereby improving resilience of the tourism economy and mitigating current and future shocks.

Restrictive visa policies can reduce international arrivals by up to 52%.

Four policies can strengthen regional cooperation and integration:

Seamless connectivity: Better connectivity is a pillar of resilience. Investments in international gateways, transport networks, and last-mile connectivity make destinations accessible, reduce travel time, and lower costs. Travelers seek well-connected, safe destinations and quality services to support their travel plans, especially when visiting multiple destinations across two or more countries.

In Asia and the Pacific, air capacity is the single strongest driver: Our research suggests that a 1% increase in international flights is associated with a 0.98% rise in arrivals. Infrastructure helps: a 1% increase in road quality is associated with a 0.23% rise in arrivals.

Economies such as the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea generate substantial outbound demand, while Southeast Asia’s expanding air transport capacity and tourism infrastructure enable it to absorb much of these flows. This alignment strengthens structural readiness to manage shocks and capitalize on recovery opportunities.

Liberal visa policies and digitalization: Alongside hard connectivity, “soft infrastructure” measures significantly influence travelers’ decisions. More open visa regimes help convert travel intent into bookings and encourage repeat visits. Restrictive visa policies can reduce international arrivals by up to 52%. In Southeast Asia, a relatively open visa environment supported recovery during the pandemic, with intra-subregional travel exceeding half of total arrivals in 2022, up from 35% in 2019.

Digitalized pre clearance, e gates, interoperable payment platforms, and traveler friendly information systems lower perceived risk and the time burden of travel. Regional or bloc e-visa systems amplify these benefits by enabling multi-country itineraries, encouraging longer stays, and smoothing seasonal demand fluctuations across destinations.

Tourism standards: Regional cooperation helps in setting and mutually recognizing standards—such as for accommodation, tour operations, and environmental practices—which can reduce perceived risks for travelers. Harmonized standards reduce compliance and certification costs for firms operating across borders.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is introducing tourism standards in service quality and facilities such as green hotels, homestays, and public toilets, as well as venues for meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE). Likewise, destinations in the 11-member Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation program aim for harmonized standards for tourism sites, accommodation, and transport facilities.

Product and market diversification: Heavy reliance on one or two markets exposes destinations to high risks when external shocks occur. The pandemic highlighted this: East Asia experienced an estimated loss of $527 million in 2020 as tourist arrivals from the People’s Republic of China plunged.

To mitigate risks, a coordinated approach to connectivity, facilitation, and standards can build a more flexible and diversified tourism economy. Developing products, such as thematic itineraries—eco-tourism, cultural tourism and MICE—across multiple countries can boost arrivals, encourage longer stays and increase spending while enabling faster responses during shocks.

Tourism is projected to contribute $6.2 trillion to Asia’s economy by 2035, up from $3.2 trillion in 2024, and support one in 10 jobs. But success will depend on regional cooperation and on an active strategy that emphasizes investment and policy coordination.

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