AEIR 2019/2020

GDP growth slowed to 5.0% in 2019 from 5.2% in 2018. On the demand side, sustained strong domestic consumption partially offset a worsening external environment (imports fell by 7.7% while exports shrank by 0.9%) and weakening domestic investment (fixed investment fell by 2.2%). On the supply side, growth in agriculture and industry slowed while services rose by 1.2 percentage points, remaining the biggest contributor to GDP growth. Inflation fell to 2.8%. The current account deficit narrowed to 2.9% of GDP. Given the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, recent developments in commodity and financial markets, and conservative assumptions on risks, GDP is forecast to grow 2.5% in 2020, recovering to 5.0% in 2021. In 2020, both exports and imports are expected to contract; fixed investment will remain subdued; while inflation should remain within target. In 2021, with the expected recovery, exports will rise with investments in urban real estate and construction.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2020, ADB
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 5.0 (Jul20)4.0 6.0
Broad Money Growth 2 8.2 (Jun20)8.2 10.4
Headline Inflation Rate 3 1.5 (Jul20)2.0 2.8
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 2.0 (Feb20)-0.8 0.6
Merchandise Export Growth 3 2.1 (Jun20)2.1 -29.5
Exchange Rate Index 4 153.7 (Jul20)149.4 148.4
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Badan Pusat Statistik.

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