AEIR 2019/2020

Economic expansion slowed from 4.4% saar in 2018Q2 to 1.9% in Q3 on weaker exports and a contraction in government consumption and fixed capital formation. Consumer optimism, a low policy interest rate, and moderate inflation continue to boost private consumption—seen through increased retail sales. Potential downside factors include a rise in unemployment, a projected slowdown in fixed investment under tighter financial conditions, and imminent changes to bank capital requirements. FocusEconomics panelists forecast growth at 2.7% in 2019, slowing to 2.5% in 2020, with exports expected to weaken in the near term as economic moderation in the People’s Republic of China reduces demand for dairy products, New Zealand’s major export.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2019, ADB.
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 1.0 (Dec19)1.0 1.0
Broad Money Growth 2 6.4 (Jan17)6.4 6.4
Headline Inflation Rate 3 1.5 (Sep19)1.9 0.0
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 1.8 (Dec17)0.8 0.0
Merchandise Export Growth 3 1.6 (Nov19)1.6 0.5
Exchange Rate Index 4 96.0 (Dec19)93.0 99.0
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database.

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