As COVID-19 containment measures gradually eased, the economy expanded by 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate .This was mainly due to a 22.1% surge in consumption and a 52.4% growth in fixed capital investment. The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) declined by 3.2% during the quarter. Despite this, business and consumer sentiment remain depressed—the consumer confidence index remained below the 100-point threshold, while the business confidence index continued to decline from –16.4 in November to –23.2 in December. Inflation inched up to 5.9% in the fourth quarter, the highest in over 2 decades, exceeding the central bank’s 1%–3% target range. The release of pent-up demand after the easing of COVID-19 restrictions is expected to support domestic economic activity, while buoyant global demand for commodities should benefit the external sector. As of 7 March 2022, Consensus Forecasts projected that GDP will grow by 3.3% in 2022 and 3.0% in 2023.
Latest | Month-Ago | Year-Ago | |
---|---|---|---|
Composite Stock Price Index 1 | 1.0 (Aug23) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Broad Money Growth 2 | 6.4 (Jan17) | 6.4 | 6.4 |
Headline Inflation Rate 3 | 6.0 (Jun23) | 7.3 | |
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 | -6.6 (Dec22) | -0.1 | |
Merchandise Export Growth 3 | -13.5 (Jul23) | -13.5 | -4.1 |
Exchange Rate Index 4 | 87.1 (Aug23) | 90.5 | 91.0 |
1 Monthly average, local index. 2 %. 3 y-o-y, %. 4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency. | |||
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database. |
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