The economy rebounded strongly, growing by 8.9% in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ended 31 March 2021) following a contraction of 6.6% in FY2020. The recovery came despite outbreaks of new COVID-19 variants, and was driven by private consumption and investment on the demand side. On the supply side, services contracted in the first quarter of 2021, but rebounded strongly by the third quarter. Headline inflation decelerated by 0.8 percentage points to 5.4% in FY 2021 as supply chain disruptions eased and food prices moderated, allowing the Reserve Bank of India to maintain an accommodative rate while continuing to inject liquidity. Budget expenditures rose to 16.2% of GDP as the government increased capital spending. GDP growth is forecast to expand by 7.5% in FY2022 and 8.0% in FY2023 as investment growth is expected to strongly recover.
|Composite Stock Price Index 1||65.0 (Aug23)||66.0||59.0|
|Broad Money Growth 2||10.6 (Jul23)||10.6||13.4|
|Headline Inflation Rate 3||7.4 (Jul23)||4.9||6.7|
|Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3||3.7 (Jun23)||5.3||12.6|
|Merchandise Export Growth 3||-15.9 (Jul23)||-15.9||-18.8|
|Exchange Rate Index 4||186.7 (Aug23)||185.2||179.4|
|1 Monthly average, local index.|
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
|Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; Ministry of Commerce and Industry.|
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