The economy contracted by an estimated 8.0% in fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ending 31 March 2021) due to COVID-19 containment measures. GDP did expand by 0.4% in the third quarter, prior to the 2021 surge in COVID-19 cases, driven by a 2.1% growth in investment (following a 27.5% decline in the first half). Third quarter exports fell by 4.6% and imports declined by 4.5%. On the supply side, industry rebounded by 2.7% in the third quarter; manufacturing by 1.6%; and utilities by 7.3%. In FY2020, inflation increased to 6.2% from 4.8% in FY2019, mainly due to food prices. In response, the Reserve Bank of India maintained rates at 4.00% after two cuts of 75 basis points and 40 points earlier in FY2020. GDP growth is forecast to rebound by 11.0% in FY2021 as vaccinations become more widespread.
|Composite Stock Price Index 1||52.0 (Jul21)||52.0||37.0|
|Broad Money Growth 2||9.9 (Jul21)||9.9||10.7|
|Headline Inflation Rate 3||5.6 (Jul21)||6.3||6.7|
|Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3||13.6 (Jun21)||28.6||-16.6|
|Merchandise Export Growth 3||45.2 (Aug21)||45.2||49.9|
|Exchange Rate Index 4||167.2 (Aug21)||168.1||168.3|
|1 Monthly average, local index.|
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
|Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; Ministry of Commerce and Industry.|
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