Asia Regional Integration Center
Tracking Asian Integration
Economic growth continued to slow to 5.0% in FY2019—from 6.1% in FY2018 and well below the 7.0% average of the past decade—as credit constraints undermined domestic demand. Agriculture grew by 3.7% in FY2019, while industry growth slowed to 1.8% from weak manufacturing and construction. Services added 3.5 percentage points to growth, expanding 7.0% mainly due to improved financial services, real estate, and other professional services. On the demand side, a decline in investment severely dragged down growth. After growing an annual average 7.2% over the past decade, gross fixed capital formation contracted by 0.6% in FY2019, its worst showing since FY2002. GDP growth is forecast to slow further to 4.0% in FY2020 before rebounding sharply to 6.2% in FY2021, assuming the COVID-19 pandemic is contained by the second half of 2020.
Latest | Month-Ago | Year-Ago | |
---|---|---|---|
Composite Stock Price Index 1 | 46.0 (Dec20) | 43.0 | 41.0 |
Broad Money Growth 2 | 12.5 (Nov20) | 12.5 | 11.6 |
Headline Inflation Rate 3 | 6.9 (Nov20) | 7.6 | 5.5 |
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 | 3.6 (Oct20) | 0.5 | -6.6 |
Merchandise Export Growth 3 | -0.8 (Dec20) | -0.8 | -8.7 |
Exchange Rate Index 4 | 166.0 (Dec20) | 167.5 | 160.5 |
1 Monthly average, local index. 2 %. 3 y-o-y, %. 4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency. | |||
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; Ministry of Commerce and Industry. |
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