Asia Regional Integration Center
Tracking Asian Integration
The economy contracted by an estimated 8.0% in fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ending 31 March 2021) due to COVID-19 containment measures. GDP did expand by 0.4% in the third quarter, prior to the 2021 surge in COVID-19 cases, driven by a 2.1% growth in investment (following a 27.5% decline in the first half). Third quarter exports fell by 4.6% and imports declined by 4.5%. On the supply side, industry rebounded by 2.7% in the third quarter; manufacturing by 1.6%; and utilities by 7.3%. In FY2020, inflation increased to 6.2% from 4.8% in FY2019, mainly due to food prices. In response, the Reserve Bank of India maintained rates at 4.00% after two cuts of 75 basis points and 40 points earlier in FY2020. GDP growth is forecast to rebound by 11.0% in FY2021 as vaccinations become more widespread.
Latest | Month-Ago | Year-Ago | |
---|---|---|---|
Composite Stock Price Index 1 | 58.0 (Apr22) | 56.0 | 48.0 |
Broad Money Growth 2 | 8.7 (Mar22) | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Headline Inflation Rate 3 | 7.0 (Mar22) | 6.1 | 5.5 |
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 | 1.7 (Feb22) | 1.5 | -3.2 |
Merchandise Export Growth 3 | 24.2 (Apr22) | 24.2 | 19.7 |
Exchange Rate Index 4 | 171.7 (Apr22) | 171.8 | 167.9 |
1 Monthly average, local index. 2 %. 3 y-o-y, %. 4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency. | |||
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; Ministry of Commerce and Industry. |
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