The economy contracted by an estimated 8.0% in fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ending 31 March 2021) due to COVID-19 containment measures. GDP did expand by 0.4% in the third quarter, prior to the 2021 surge in COVID-19 cases, driven by a 2.1% growth in investment (following a 27.5% decline in the first half). Third quarter exports fell by 4.6% and imports declined by 4.5%. On the supply side, industry rebounded by 2.7% in the third quarter; manufacturing by 1.6%; and utilities by 7.3%. In FY2020, inflation increased to 6.2% from 4.8% in FY2019, mainly due to food prices. In response, the Reserve Bank of India maintained rates at 4.00% after two cuts of 75 basis points and 40 points earlier in FY2020. GDP growth is forecast to rebound by 11.0% in FY2021 as vaccinations become more widespread.
|Composite Stock Price Index 1||60.0 (Oct21)||58.0||40.0|
|Broad Money Growth 2||9.3 (Sep21)||9.3||9.5|
|Headline Inflation Rate 3||4.4 (Sep21)||5.3||7.3|
|Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3||11.9 (Aug21)||11.5||-7.1|
|Merchandise Export Growth 3||42.3 (Oct21)||42.3||22.6|
|Exchange Rate Index 4||169.1 (Oct21)||165.9||165.7|
|1 Monthly average, local index.|
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
|Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; Ministry of Commerce and Industry.|
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