AEIR 2019/2020

Economic growth continued to slow to 5.0% in FY2019—from 6.1% in FY2018 and well below the 7.0% average of the past decade—as credit constraints undermined domestic demand. Agriculture grew by 3.7% in FY2019, while industry growth slowed to 1.8% from weak manufacturing and construction. Services added 3.5 percentage points to growth, expanding 7.0% mainly due to improved financial services, real estate, and other professional services. On the demand side, a decline in investment severely dragged down growth. After growing an annual average 7.2% over the past decade, gross fixed capital formation contracted by 0.6% in FY2019, its worst showing since FY2002. GDP growth is forecast to slow further to 4.0% in FY2020 before rebounding sharply to 6.2% in FY2021, assuming the COVID-19 pandemic is contained by the second half of 2020.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2020, ADB
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 46.0 (Dec20)43.0 41.0
Broad Money Growth 2 12.5 (Nov20)12.5 11.6
Headline Inflation Rate 3 6.9 (Nov20)7.6 5.5
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 3.6 (Oct20)0.5 -6.6
Merchandise Export Growth 3 -0.8 (Dec20)-0.8 -8.7
Exchange Rate Index 4 166.0 (Dec20)167.5 160.5
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

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