AEIR 2019/2020

Economic growth continued to slow to 5.0% in FY2019—from 6.1% in FY2018 and well below the 7.0% average of the past decade—as credit constraints undermined domestic demand. Agriculture grew by 3.7% in FY2019, while industry growth slowed to 1.8% from weak manufacturing and construction. Services added 3.5 percentage points to growth, expanding 7.0% mainly due to improved financial services, real estate, and other professional services. On the demand side, a decline in investment severely dragged down growth. After growing an annual average 7.2% over the past decade, gross fixed capital formation contracted by 0.6% in FY2019, its worst showing since FY2002. GDP growth is forecast to slow further to 4.0% in FY2020 before rebounding sharply to 6.2% in FY2021, assuming the COVID-19 pandemic is contained by the second half of 2020.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2020, ADB
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 40.0 (Oct20)38.0 38.0
Broad Money Growth 2 12.2 (Sep20)12.2 12.6
Headline Inflation Rate 3 7.3 (Sep20)6.7 4.0
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 -8.0 (Aug20)-10.8 -1.4
Merchandise Export Growth 3 6.0 (Sep20)6.0 -12.6
Exchange Rate Index 4 165.7 (Oct20)165.8 160.2
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

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