GDP contracted by 3.2% in fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ending 30 June) despite government stimulus equivalent to 3.1% of GDP. Visitor arrivals fell by 30.2%, driving commerce down by 4.4% and manufacturing by 12.8%. Remittances remained strong, however, growing by 4.9%. Economic recovery is forecast for 2022, only if people are fully vaccinated and international travelers return in substantial numbers. Despite further government stimulus (4.2% of GDP), GDP is forecast to contract by 9.2% in FY2021 before recovering to 3.1% growth in 2022 as the competition for tourists intensifies. After dropping to 1.5% in FY2020, consumer prices turned negative in the second half of 2020. Deflation is expected to reach 2.5% in FY2021 as agricultural production increases, import prices drop and government subsidies for domestic utilities rise. Inflation is forecast to rise to 2.7% in FY2022.
|Headline Inflation Rate 1||-0.8 (Apr21)||-3.5||1.0|
|Merchandise Export Growth 1||65.5 (Mar21)||65.5||4.2|
|Exchange Rate Index 2||108.0 (Jun21)||108.3||102.5|
|1 y-o-y, %.|
2 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
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