Asia Regional Integration Center
Tracking Asian Integration
The economy recovered quickly in the second half of 2020, with GDP reversing its 25.2% second quarter contraction (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) to13.1% growth in the fourth quarter. The main driver was household consumption, which expanded by 18.1%, followed by fixed investments (15.0%) and exports (16.3%). Seasonally adjusted retail sales also grew by 10.0% in the fourth quarter. In October, the consumer sentiment index turned positive. The manufacturing performance index improved. The recovery brought the unemployment rate down from 7.5% in July 2020 to 5.8% in February 2021, while inflation decelerated from 1.6% in 2019 to 0.9% in 2020. Substantial fiscal and monetary support, along with effective COVID-19 measures, helped drive these economic developments and positive outlook. As of 25 March 2021, Consensus Forecasts estimated GDP growth to be 4.3% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022.
Latest | Month-Ago | Year-Ago | |
---|---|---|---|
Composite Stock Price Index 1 | 4.0 (Apr22) | 4.0 | 3.0 |
Broad Money Growth 2 | 5.7 (May21) | 5.7 | 4.9 |
Headline Inflation Rate 3 | 5.1 (Mar22) | 1.1 | |
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 | 0.8 (Jun21) | -1.5 | |
Merchandise Export Growth 3 | 23.4 (Mar22) | 23.4 | 19.1 |
Exchange Rate Index 4 | 98.0 (Apr22) | 98.3 | 102.6 |
1 Monthly average, local index. 2 %. 3 y-o-y, %. 4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency. | |||
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database. |
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