AEIR 2017

The Australian economy expanded by 1.5% saar in Q4 2017, well down from 2.8% growth in Q3 2017. Consumption was almost the only growth driver, contributing 3.6 percentage points, with change in inventories adding 0.1 points. Meanwhile, net exports deducted 1.9 points and fixed capital formation 1.2 points. Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.1% in January 2018 after falling by 0.5% in the previous month.

With positive growth in retail sales and consumer sentiment remaining optimistic, private consumption is expected to continue to drive economic growth. Also boding well for higher growth are continued expansion in manufacturing, measures of business confidence indicating huge optimism regarding future economic conditions, and a robust labor market. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP expanding by 2.7% in 2018 and 2019, with economic growth supported by accommodative monetary policy and stronger exports of liquefied natural gas, even as activity rebalances away from mining.

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2018, ADB.
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 4.0 (Aug18)4.0 4.0
Broad Money Growth 2 2.0 (Jun18)2.0 2.5
Headline Inflation Rate 3 2.1 (Jun18)1.9 0.0
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 4.4 (Mar18)-0.5 0.0
Merchandise Export Growth 3 14.7 (Jun18)14.7 9.7
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database.