The economy recovered quickly in the second half of 2020, with GDP reversing its 25.2% second quarter contraction (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) to13.1% growth in the fourth quarter. The main driver was household consumption, which expanded by 18.1%, followed by fixed investments (15.0%) and exports (16.3%). Seasonally adjusted retail sales also grew by 10.0% in the fourth quarter. In October, the consumer sentiment index turned positive. The manufacturing performance index improved. The recovery brought the unemployment rate down from 7.5% in July 2020 to 5.8% in February 2021, while inflation decelerated from 1.6% in 2019 to 0.9% in 2020. Substantial fiscal and monetary support, along with effective COVID-19 measures, helped drive these economic developments and positive outlook. As of 25 March 2021, Consensus Forecasts estimated GDP growth to be 4.3% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022.
|Composite Stock Price Index 1||4.0 (May21)||3.0||3.0|
|Broad Money Growth 2||13.7 (Dec20)||13.7||13.1|
|Headline Inflation Rate 3||1.1 (Mar21)||2.2|
|Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3||-1.6 (Mar21)||2.8|
|Merchandise Export Growth 3||40.8 (Apr21)||40.8||25.4|
|Exchange Rate Index 4||103.4 (May21)||102.6||86.8|
|1 Monthly average, local index.|
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
|Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database.|
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