AEIR 2019/2020

Despite weaker export growth, GDP growth rose marginally from 4.0% in 2017 to 4.1% in 2018 on higher domestic demand. By volume, export growth moderated from 5.4% in 2017 to 4.2% in 2018. By US dollar value, merchandise export growth fell from 9.8% in 2017 to 7.7% as external demand softened. While lower prices caused a 23.6% reduction in earnings from rubber exports, a slowdown in global electronics trade helped drag manufacturing export growth down from 10.2% in 2017 to 8.4%. GDP growth is expected to decline to 3.9% in 2019 and 3.7% in 2020. Although domestic consumption and investment should hold up, slowing global growth and trade tensions will dim export prospects.

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2019, ADB.
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 1.0 (Feb20)1.0 1.0
Broad Money Growth 2 3.7 (Jan20)3.7 3.6
Headline Inflation Rate 3 1.1 (Jan20)0.9 0.3
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 -4.6 (Jan20)-4.4 0.4
Merchandise Export Growth 3 3.4 (Jan20)3.4 -1.3
Exchange Rate Index 4 79.2 (Feb20)77.0 79.2
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Bank of Thailand; Customs Department.

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