AEIR 2019/2020

Infrastructure spending and continued export gains boosted growth in 2019. Growth is estimated to have accelerated to 5.1% in 2019 from 4.8% in 2018. Inflation nearly doubled, to 4.9% from 2.6% in 2018 with currency depreciation. Prices rose sharply toward yearend. The current account deficit narrowed from the equivalent of 6.8% of GDP in 2018 to an historic low of 4.5% in 2019. It should fall further by 2021 with the continued decline in merchandise imports. Zero growth is projected for 2020 as monetary tightening and the impact of COVID-19 constrain consumption and limit expansion in tourism and trade. Growth should recover to 4.5% in 2021 as increased bank credit to households, higher foreign direct investment, and a rebound in worker remittances fuel domestic demand.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2020, ADB
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Headline Inflation Rate 1 4.8 (Aug20)5.7 4.9
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 1 3.4 (Mar20)0.0 0.0
Merchandise Export Growth 1 -21.6 (Jul20)-21.6 -13.7
Exchange Rate Index 2 171.0 (Aug20)170.6 162.5
1 y-o-y, %.
2 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: CEIC database.

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