Asia Regional Integration Center

As the challenges of the pandemic and political uncertainties continued, Armenia reversed a 7.4% contraction in 2020, growing by 5.7% in 2021. Services expanded by 6.8% after contracting 8.8% in 2020, while industry grew by 3.8% following a 2.9% decline. Agriculture fell by 1.4% in 2021, the sixth consecutive year of decline. Higher remittances drive private consumption up by 3.4% following a steep 13.9% decrease in 2020. Public consumption growth fell from 15.2% in 2020 to 5.0% in 2021 as pandemic-related fiscal stimulus wound down. Inflation was well above the central bank’s target range, rapidly accelerating from 1.2% in 2020 to 7.2% in 2021. Barring any additional risk from neighboring conflicts, growth is projected to slow to 2.8% in 2022, gradually increasing to 3.8% in 2023 as the impact of economic shocks wanes.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy rebounded in 2021, growing by 5.6% on strong services and manufacturing, after a 4.3% contraction in 2020. On the supply side, strong manufacturing—construction materials, pharmaceuticals, furniture, and machinery—drove industrial production up by 7.2%. Services grew by 7.8% after a 3.5% decline in 2020—as reopened borders boosted tourism (up 34.2%), transport and warehousing (16.0%), and wholesale and retail trade (5.3%). On the demand side, private consumption grew by 3.7% as quarantine restrictions eased. Investment, however, fell by 8.2% due to cuts in public spending. The budget deficit dropped to 1.1% of GDP from 2.3% in 2020 as fiscal stimulus fell. Monetary policy remains focused on price stability. Bank lending grew by a robust 17.8%. As private consumption and hydrocarbon revenues are projected to weaken, GDP should grow by 3.7% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Georgia’s growth recovered strongly from the 6.8% contraction in 2020 to an estimated 10.6% growth in 2021. All major sectors did well with exceptions of construction and agriculture. On the supply side, services reversed its 8.1% contraction in 2020 to grow by 14.5%. Industry reversed a 6.6% drop in 2020 to expand by 6.2%. However, agriculture contracted by 2.5% due to pest damage and adverse weather. On the demand side, growth in consumption nearly doubled from 5.4% in 2020 to 9.0% as pandemic restrictions were lifted in the second half of the year. Growth is forecast to decline to 3.5% as the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine slows trade and remittances. It is expected to recover somewhat to 5.0% in 2023 with some revival in demand—both domestic, fueled by faster credit growth, and external, with increased exports the result of structural reform to trade and connectivity.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

After a 2.5% contraction in 2020, the economy expanded by 4.0% in 2021 as COVID-19 restrictions began easing and vaccinations accelerated. Most sectors grew, with services contributing most. Consumption also revived in 2021, with private consumption growing by 5.0% and public consumption easing to 1.2%. However, prospects dampened for the immediate future due to conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as spillovers from the economic sanctions on the Russian Federation will likely drag on Kazakhstan’s growth. GDP is forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2022, inching back up to 3.9% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy grew by 3.6% in 2021 after plunging by 8.6% in 2020. Industry recovered by 3.1%, on a solid 21.1% expansion in mining output, overshadowing a 4.8% decline in construction. Services grew by 6.5% on strong growth in trade (up 11.4%), transport (15.6%), and hospitality (14.3%). Agriculture contracted by 5.0% against 0.9% growth in 2020. Private consumption rose, supported by remittances, which jumped 16% in 2021 as the border with the Russian Federation reopened. Investment, however, fell by 5.9% as projects were delayed. Inflation shot up to 11.9% (from 6.3% in 2020) on rising food prices. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 0.3% of GDP in 2021 from 3.3% of GDP in 2020. Falling exports and rising imports increased the current account deficit to 7.0% of GDP, reversing the 2020 surplus of 4.8%. With economic sanctions affecting its main trading partner, economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.0% in 2022, recovering to 2.5% in 2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Economic growth doubled to 9.2% in 2021 after growing by 4.5% in 2020. On the supply side, growth in industry jumped from 9.7% in 2020 to 22.0% on a 50% rise in mining, 16.3% in manufacturing, and 12.5% in electricity generation. On the demand side, higher growth and remittances, with 95% coming from the Russian Federation, helped boost consumption. Investment rose by 23.3% from private and foreign sources, mainly for mineral extraction and processing. Inflation slowed from 9.4% in 2020 to 8.0% in 2021. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2022 due to the impact of an economic downturn in the Russian Federation and associated adverse external environment. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy was estimated to have grown by 5.0% in 2021, driven by strong hydrocarbon production and exports. Gas production grew by an estimated 42% despite the muted recovery in other sectors. Gross investment declined to an estimated 19% of GDP in 2021 from 39% in 2017. Average annual inflation accelerated to an estimated 12.5% in 2021 from 10.0% in 2020 due to higher food prices caused by trade disruptions. Both government revenues and expenditures declined in 2021, with public debt dropping to an estimated 27.0% of GDP from 32.2% of GDP. Import substitution and foreign exchange controls contributed to a current account surplus of 0.6% in 2021. Export revenues are estimated to have grown by 25.6%, driven by a 35% growth in gas exports. The economy is forecast to grow by 6.0% in 2022 and by 5.8% in 2023 on higher hydrocarbon prices and export volumes. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

GDP grew by 7.4% in 2021, with a strong recovery in industry and services. Services grew by 9.2%, with industrial output rising by 8.7%. These gains in were helped by growth in construction and agriculture. Consumption also rebounded in 2021, as eased foreign travel restrictions boosted wages and remittances, while government expenditures on social protection, education, and healthcare doubled. While the outlook is generally favorable, there are significant downside risks from the economic sanctions levied on the Russian Federation, moderating private consumption, and the possible appearance of new COVID-19 variants. The economy is forecast to grow by 4.0% in 2022, rising to 4.5% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Economic growth recovered to 8.1% in 2021 from 2.2% in 2020, primarily driven by consumption. However, the economy showed signs of slowing in the second half of 2021. Household consumption accelerated by 12.6% in 2022, reversing a 4.0%-contraction in 2020. On the supply side, services contributed most, growing by 4.4%, with industry up by 3.1% and agriculture by 7.1%. GDP is expected to expand by 5.0% in 2022. With monetary policy expected to ease, exports should grow along with services (as domestic consumption improves). Economic growth is forecast to moderate to 4.8% in 2023 due to a slowdown in return on investment, coupled with a shrinking labor force. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy expanded by 6.4% in 2021, an 11-year high, due to strong domestic and external demand. Private consumption led the increase, rebounding from a steep 10.5% contraction in 2020 to grow by 5.6%. Fixed investment expanded by 10.1% on and improved investment outlook. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also fell to 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021. On the supply side, services expanded by 5.7%, manufacturing grew by 5.5%, and construction increased by 0.7% following the rebound in trade and export demand. Headline consumer price inflation accelerated to 1.6% in 2021 from 0.3% in 2020, while underlying inflation fell to 0.6% in 2021 from 1.3% in 2020. As the US Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, growth is expected to moderate to 2.0% in 2022 before accelerating to 3.7% in 2023 as activity normalizes. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

After contracting by 4.8% in 2020, the economy grew by 1.7% in 2021. Growth momentum stalled in the first quarter of 2021 as mobility restrictions were imposed due to a resurgence of COVID-19 cases from the omicron variant. Nonetheless, immediately after the restrictions were lifted in September 2021, contact-intensive services recovered and private consumption returned to pre-pandemic levels. Given the recovery in domestic and foreign demand, as well as an expected uptick in private investment, the economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2022. Growth is expected to moderate to 1.8% in 2023 on a reduction in net exports. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy reported its highest growth in a decade in 2021. After a 0.9% contraction in 2020, the economy grew by 4.0% in 2021 due to strong recovery in consumption from both private and public sectors. Success in COVID-19 containment, mass vaccinations, eased mobility restrictions, and labor market recovery bolstered private consumption. On the supply side, both services and manufacturing boosted the expansion. With the economy recovering in 2021 from a low base in 2020, growth is expected to ease to a more sustainable 3.0% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023. It will likely be supported by higher domestic consumption, easing unemployment, and high vaccinations.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy rebounded modestly in 2021, with GDP growing by 1.4% after declining by 4.6% in 2020. Growth in both services and mining helped cushion the decline in agriculture and other non-mining industries. Trade disruptions also weighed down economic growth, with the closure of the main trade portal with the People’s Republic of China in October 2021 and continued COVID-19 restrictions. Government consumption continued to grow, but private consumption slid by 6.6% due to low labor force participation and high inflation. Despite this, the economic outlook remains generally positive for the next 2 years, supported by continued growth in services, a possible recovery in agriculture, and continued influx of investment. GDP is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2022 and by 5.6% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Driven by a strong economic recovery, growth accelerated to 6.4% in 2021. Industrial output expanded by 12.8%, contributing 4.8 points with services growing by 3.0%, contributing 1.8 points. Hit by the worst drought in more than 5 decades and a typhoon, agriculture contracted by 4.2%. Net exports contributed 1.9 points to growth while investment, which grew 17.3% from the previous year, contributed 4.2 points. Unemployment rose to 4.8% after COVID-19 infections spiked in June 2021, but fell gradually to reach the pre-pandemic rate of 3.6% in December. Inflation reached 2.0% in 2021 as food, transportation, and crude oil prices rose. But core inflation remained stable. Economic growth is expected to moderate to 3.8% in 2022, dropping further to 3.0% in 2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy recovered in the fourth quarter of 2021, with GDP expanding by 14.4% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Household spending surged, increasing consumption by 18.7%. In December, unemployment fell to 4.2%, the lowest in 13 years. Inflation accelerated to 2.9% from 0.9% in 2020, the highest rate in 10 years. In addition, lower fixed capital investment cut growth by 1.5 percentage points on lower private business investment. Exports were down by 6.0% and imports fell 3.5% from global supply-chain disruptions. GDP is estimated to grow by 4.0% this 2022 and 3.1% in 2023 as domestic demand strengthens from accommodative financing conditions, accumulated savings, and an easing of COVID-19 restrictions. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

As COVID-19 containment measures gradually eased, the economy expanded by 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate .This was mainly due to a 22.1% surge in consumption and a 52.4% growth in fixed capital investment. The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)  declined by 3.2% during the quarter. Despite this, business and consumer sentiment remain depressed—the consumer confidence index remained below the 100-point threshold, while the business confidence index continued to decline from –16.4 in November to –23.2 in December. Inflation inched up to 5.9% in the fourth quarter, the highest in over 2 decades, exceeding the central bank’s 1%–3% target range. The release of pent-up demand after the easing of COVID-19 restrictions is expected to support domestic economic activity, while buoyant global demand for commodities should benefit the external sector. As of 7 March 2022, Consensus Forecasts projected that GDP will grow by 3.3% in 2022 and 3.0% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy suffered a series of shocks in 2021—drought, increased violence, COVID-19 infections, and restrictions. After the regime change on 15 August, international assistance and other financial inflows were suspended, including remittances and export revenues, slowing economic activity and suppressing domestic demand. More than half a million jobs were lost following the regime change. Real wages fell by 24% for skilled workers and 11% for unskilled workers. Headline inflation averaged 5.15% year-on-year in 2021. The afghani depreciated by 34.4% against the US dollar and the financial sector remains highly dollarized—as of 2020, 70% of deposits and half of loans outstanding were in foreign currency, mostly US dollars. Assuming a continuation of current political policies and a continued freeze of international development assistance, simulations show real GDP will contract by 30% over the medium term. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

GDP grew by 6.9% in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ended 30 June 2021), up from 3.4% in FY2020. A rise in external trade and swift implementation of fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to the COVID-19 pandemic helped drive solid FY2021 expansion. The recovery was largely driven by rising industrial activity, up by 10.3% (from 3.6% in FY2020), followed by services, which grew by 5.7% (up from 3.9%). Growth in agriculture, however, slowed to 3.2% from 3.4% due to a cyclone and prolonged flooding early in the fiscal year. GDP is projected to continue to grow by 6.9% in FY2022 on increased budget spending, strong growth in exports, and a slight rise in agricultural output. In FY2023, GDP is expected to grow by a robust 7.1%.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

GDP grew by an estimated 3.5% in 2021 after a steep 10.1% contraction in 2020. Fiscal and monetary stimulus and easing of pandemic-related supply-chain problems helped drive the recovery. All sectors likely grew in 2021. Industrial output increased by an estimated 4.7%, accounting for nearly half of GDP growth. Agriculture growth slowed to an estimated 3.6% from 4.6% in 2020 because of an unfavorable monsoon. Services growth moderated due to tourism restrictions, yet grew by 2.8% due to a revival in retail trade and other domestic businesses. Average inflation increased to 7.4% from 5.4%, reflecting stronger consumer demand and rising income. The economy is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2022 and 7.5% in 2023 as international tourism returns. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy rebounded strongly, growing by 8.9% in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ended 31 March 2021) following a contraction of 6.6% in FY2020. The recovery came despite outbreaks of new COVID-19 variants, and was driven by private consumption and investment on the demand side. On the supply side, services contracted in the first quarter of 2021, but rebounded strongly by the third quarter. Headline inflation decelerated by 0.8 percentage points to 5.4% in FY 2021 as supply chain disruptions eased and food prices moderated, allowing the Reserve Bank of India to maintain an accommodative rate while continuing to inject liquidity. Budget expenditures rose to 16.2% of GDP as the government increased capital spending. GDP growth is forecast to expand by 7.5% in FY2022 and 8.0% in FY2023 as investment growth is expected to strongly recover. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

A recovery in tourism and related sectors increased GDP by 31.6% in 2021, following the significant 33.5% contraction in 2020. Tourist arrivals rose to 1.3 million from 555,494 in 2020, up 138%. However, despite the surge, arrivals were 22.4% lower than in pre-pandemic 2019. Average inflation remained low at 0.5% in 2021 due to the government's administrative price controls and one-off discounts on some necessities and utilities. Assuming no major geopolitical fallout from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine or another wave of COVID-19 infections, increasing tourist arrivals and new large public infrastructure projects should drive GDP up by 11.0% in 2022 and by 12.0% in 2023, bringing GDP up 8.8% above its 2019 level. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Continued monetary and fiscal stimulus along with the global economic recovery buoyed economic growth by 2.3% in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ended 15 July 2021). On the supply-side, agriculture expanded by 2.4%, industry by 1.7%, and services by 2.5%. The demand side was driven by private consumption and fixed investment, even as net exports weakened. In FY2021, average inflation slowed to 3.6% from 6.2% due to easing COVID-19 mobility restrictions. Increased revenues from customs and deferred receipts lowered the FY2021 budget deficit by 1.1 percentage points. Government debt rose to 41.4% of GDP due to increased spending to control the pandemic. The current account deficit widened to 8.0% of GDP in FY2021 from 0.9% on increased imports of transport equipment and manufacturing raw materials. With accommodative policies and increased vaccine coverage, the economy is expected to expand by 3.9% in FY2022. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy reversed its 1.0% contraction in fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ended 30 June), growing by 5.6% in FY2021. Industrial output grew by 7.8%, buoyed by fiscal incentives. Manufacturing was up by 10.5%, construction by 5.3%, and services rebounded by 5.7%, after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted. On the demand side, private consumption led the recovery, supported by government cash transfers and a record increase in remittances, along with an expansionary monetary policy. GDP growth, however, is projected to moderate to 4.0% in FY2022 due to slower domestic demand from monetary tightening, restrictions on automobile financing, and additional fiscal consolidation measures enacted in January 2022. Growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in FY2023 due to increased private consumption and investment. Greater macroeconomic stability is also expected to boost household and business confidence. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

After contracting by 3.6% in 2020, reviving domestic demand and exports drove  growth up by 3.7% in 2021. Services grew by 3.0%, industry by 5.3%, and agriculture by 2.0%. The economic recovery, however, has been significantly affected by fiscal and monetary macroeconomic issues, apart from persistent COVID-19 restrictions. Private consumption rose by 7.5% in the first 9 months of 2021 from a low 2020 base, while government consumption increased by 2.2%, mostly to contain the pandemic. The Colombo consumer price index averaged 6.0% in 2021, up from 4.6% in 2020, accelerating to 15.1% year-on-year in February 2022. Stymied by a large debt overhang, fiscal and external financing needs, and double-digit inflation, among others, GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2022 before rising slightly to 2.5% in 2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy contracted by 1.5% in 2021 after growing by 1.1% in 2020. Weaker oil and gas production, and a resurgence in COVID-19 infections in August 2021 hurt the economy. While services and agriculture grew in 2021, the large drop in hydrocarbon production led to the contraction in GDP. Despite this, oil and gas output is expected to expand over the next several years, reversing the decline in 2021. In addition, easing pandemic restrictions and high vaccination rates may further support growth. GDP is thus expected to grow by 4.2% in 2022, easing to 3.6% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Growth rebounded to an estimated 3.0% in 2021 after contracting by 3.1% in 2020. In the second half, a robust recovery in external demand for manufactured products drove the recovery faster than expected. Industrial output grew by 7.4% in 2021 as exports of garments, footwear, and travel goods recovered quickly and non-garment manufacturing continued its robust expansion, with exports rising by 30.7%. Agriculture exports rose by 19.0% in 2021 on solid growth in cassava, banana, and rubber. However, services contracted by 0.4% due to the continuing pandemic and lockdowns. Nevertheless, the recovery in major trading partners will continue to support merchandise exports and inflows of foreign direct investment. The economy is forecast to grow by 5.3% in 2022 and 6.5% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy recovered in 2021 with GDP growing by 3.7%, wiping out the 2.1% contraction in 2020. Growth temporarily stalled in the third quarter as mobility restrictions were re-imposed to quell a COVID-19 delta-variant outbreak. Private consumption grew by 2.0%, investment by 3.7%, and net exports grew by 27.3%. Imports grew by 21% in national income accounts, while exports grew by 24% as recovering global demand for goods boosted Indonesia’s primary commodity exports including coal, palm oil, and nickel. Services exports contracted, as they did in 2020, as travel to Bali remained extremely limited. The economic recovery is expected to pick up further with GDP projected to grow by 5.0% in 2022 and 5.2% in 2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy gradually recovered in 2021 from its worst contraction in decades. Real GDP expanded by 2.3% after shrinking by 0.5% in 2020. Industrial and agriculture exports contributed much to the recovery. Industrial output expanded by 4%, supported by increased electricity and mining production, and rising construction activity. Inflation moderated to 3.7% in 2021 from 5.1% in 2020. The central bank allowed the official exchange rate to depreciate—on average, the kip fell 7.5% against the United States dollar—causing prices of imported goods to rise, especially petroleum products and construction materials. The authorities increased oil prices 13 times in 2021. Recovery is expected to continue with GDP growing by 3.4% in 2022 and by 3.7% in 2023.  
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

As COVID-19 restrictions eased and global demand rose, Malaysia’s GDP rebounded, growing by 3.1% in 2021 following a 5.6% contraction in 2020. Although the delta COVID-19 variant and rising prices dampened demand at the beginning of the year, all components had recovered strongly by the fourth quarter. Private consumption expanded by 1.9%, public consumption by 6.6%, private investment by 2.6%, and exports of goods and services by 15.9%. Supply-side growth was driven by manufacturing, which grew by 9.5% in 2021 due to relaxed restrictions and a robust recovery in global exports. Unemployment eased from 4.9% at the start of 2021 to 4.2% by the end of the year. The central bank continued its accommodative stance with a 1.75% policy rate. GDP is forecast to accelerate to 6.0% in 2022 as the recovery continues, before slowing to 5.4% in 2023.  
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Economic growth fell by 18.4% in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ended 30 September 2021) due to political uncertainty and the COVID-19 pandemic. Industry contracted by 20.9% in FY2021 (from 3.8% in FY2020) while services decelerated further to 26.4% (from 3.4%). Weak external demand and higher prices of farm inputs slowed agricultural growth to 0.8% in FY2021 from 1.7%. The current account deficit narrowed to 1.1% of GDP from 2.5% of GDP in FY2020, as mobility restrictions slowed external trade, lowered export earnings, and slowed import growth. Inflation moderated to 3.6% in FY2021 from 5.7%, while fiscal deficit widened to 6% of GDP from 5% in FY2020 as revenues fell. In FY2022, the economy is forecast to contract by 0.3% due to continued political instability. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy rebounded, expanding by 5.6% in 2021 after contracting by 9.6% in 2020. As the major drivers of growth, investment grew by 19.0% with household consumption rising by 4.2%. On the supply side, services was the largest contributor to growth, expanding by 5.3%. Remittances from Filipinos working abroad rose by 5.1%, reaching $34.9 billion in 2021, or 8.9% of GDP. Inflation increased to 3.9% from 2.4% in 2020 on higher food and petroleum prices. GDP is forecast to grow by 6.0% in 2022 and by 6.3% in 2023 as domestic demand strengthens. As economic recovery accelerates, revenues will continue to improve with the government’s decision to maintain excise taxes on petroleum products. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy rebounded in 2021, growing by 7.6% after the pandemic-induced 4.1% contraction in 2020. Manufacturing rose by 13.2%, while construction soared by 20.1%. Services expanded by 5.6% with all subsectors showing positive growth. Domestic demand grew by a robust 8.9% growth while investment had double-digit growth. Inflation rose to 2.3% in 2021 on higher food prices and transport costs. A 6.7% drop in exports and 7.7% contraction in imports (by value) allowed the trade surplus to widen to 29.8% of GDP in 2021. Monetary policy was tightened in October 2021, but the 3-month Singapore interbank rank remained stable at 0.4%. The budget deficit narrowed to 1.0% of GDP in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ending 31 March 2022), despite a largely accommodative fiscal policy. Economic growth is forecast to moderate to 4.3% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

GDP grew by 1.6% in 2021, helping it recover from a 6.2% contraction in 2020. The economy began to recover in the fourth quarter on strong merchandise exports, relaxed mobility restrictions, and fiscal stimulus. Despite weak overall growth, exports of goods and services did well in 2021, with the US dollar value of merchandise exports rising by 14.9%. Export growth was aided by improved economic conditions in major trading partners, especially in semiconductors. Services exports, however, contracted by 22.8% on the continued decline in international tourist arrivals. The economy is expected to recover gradually in the second half of 2022—a forecast that heavily depends on any new COVID-19 infections and accompanying mobility restrictions. GDP is forecast to grow by 3.0% this year and 4.5% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Twin shocks dampened the economic recovery, with GDP growing by a modest 1.8% growth in 2021. A sharp rise in COVID-19 cases in March—followed by severe flooding due to Cyclone Seroja in April—lowered consumer confidence and household income, resulting in lower private consumption. However, government consumption increased in 2021, as it added typhoon support to its COVID-19 recovery measures. Growth will likely to continue into 2023, with strong budget support in 2022 and potential election expenditures in 2023. GDP is forecasts to grow by 2.5% in 2022 and by 3.1% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Although the economy strengthened in 2020, with GDP rising by 2.9%, a renewed COVID-19 outbreak, tighter labor supply, and disrupted production caused growth to slow to 2.6% in 2021. Industrial output rose by 4.0%, services by 1.2%, and agriculture by 2.9%. Private consumption grew by 2.0%, up from 2020 but still much lower than the 2019 growth rate of 7.4%. As the government cut current expenditures, public consumption declined to 2.9% in 2021 from 6.2% in 2020. Inflation decelerated to 1.8% from 3.2% on weak domestic demand; 2021 inflation was the lowest since 2016. High vaccination coverage, infrastructure development, and other stimulus measures are expected to help GDP to grow by 6.5% in 2022 and by 6.7% in 2023.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Among Pacific member countries, Cook Islands suffered the largest contraction in FY2021 (ended 30 June 2021). GDP contracted by 29.1% with accommodation falling by 81.3% and travel by 65.1%. After these large declines, economic recovery will begin in FY2022 with GDP growth expected to rise by 9.1% as tourism resumes. This will accelerate further to 11.2% in FY2023. Inflation increased to 2.2% in FY2021 largely on higher fuel prices, which raised costs for transportation and imported food and beverages. Prices are forecast to accelerate to 4.3% in FY2022 before easing to 4.0% in FY2023. The current account deficit doubled to 12.5% of GDP in FY2021 largely due the decline in tourism—it is forecast to drop to 7.0% of GDP in FY2022 and revert to a surplus of 5.1% in FY2023 as tourism receipts recover. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Persistent COVID-19 variants led the economy down by 4.1% in 2021 after a steep 15.2% contraction in 2020. Visitor arrivals dropped a further 78.5% in 2021, blocking any nascent business recovery. But as borders reopened to selected markets in December 2021, visitor inflows from Australia and the United States resumed. Consumption improved from a low base, boosted by a 14.6% growth in remittances. The fiscal deficit rose to 10.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ending 31 July 2021) as revenue dropped by 21.1%, raising the country’s debt to 79.0% of GDP. The current account deficit narrowed to 11.9% of GDP in 2021 due to record remittance inflows. Tourism receipts remain depressed but should begin to recover with less border restrictions and the resumption of visitor inflows. As business activity and hiring is restored GDP is forecast to grow by 7.1% in 2022 and 8.5% in 2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy returned to modest growth in 2021 as the government invested about 32% of GDP on social protection to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The public expenditures helped lift household income and fuel domestic consumption. Economic activity was also bolstered by the resumption of some infrastructure projects. Further growth is expected, with GDP forecast to grow by 1.8% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023, although the downside risk of potential COVID-19 outbreaks remains.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

A year of mobility restrictions caused by the pandemic led GDP to contract by a further 3.3% in FY2021 (ended 30 September 2021). Containment measures and travel bans constrained fisheries and onshore fleet services, hotels and restaurants, and construction. This kept inflation low at 1.0% despite higher international fuel prices. Lower imports and continued grants from development partners increased the current account surplus to 23.5% of GDP, up from 20.5% in FY2020. Growth is expected to return in FY2022 with the easing of mobility restrictions and business activity returning to normal. GDP is forecast to expand by 1.2% in 2022, accelerating to 2.2% in FY2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

With travel and mobility restrictions stifling the economy, GDP shrank by 1.2% in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ended 30 September 2021). Despite the challenges in getting people vaccinated, $75 million in government stimulus packages helped reduce the economic contraction by an estimated 1.9 percentage points. As fuel prices increased and supply chains disrupted, inflation grew to 2.0% in FY2021. Lackluster tourism receipts shrank. The current account surplus fell to 0.5% of GDP as a result of the drop in tourism, while the fiscal surplus narrowed to 6.3% of GDP due to COVID-19 stimulus. In FY2022, GDP is forecast to bounce back, growing by 2.2%, assuming that travel restrictions ease by mid-year and the hospitality and transport sectors normalize.  
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy recovered slightly, growing by 1.5% in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ended 30 June), higher than its 0.8% growth in FY 2020. Pandemic-related restrictions continued to dampen economic growth, even as the economy was supported by COVID-19 response measures. Government expenditures rose by 22.3%, with funds allotted to health facilities and state-owned enterprises providing vital public services. The current account surplus fell to 4.6% of GDP (from 10.4%) as services exports suffered from the reduced operations of Nauru Airlines. GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 1.0% in FY2022 as activities related to the Australia-financed Regional Processing Centre wind down. Growth should bounce back to 2.4% in 2023 due to infrastructure projects and related activities.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy contracted in FY2021 (ended 30 June 2021) as prolonged border closures hobbled tourism and public investment projects. Fiscal results in the first 7 months of FY2021 suggest a broad decline across the economy, despite no community transmission of COVID-19. One-way quarantine-free travel into New Zealand began in March 2021, but two-way quarantine-free travel with New Zealand has been interrupted several times following COVID-19 outbreaks in Auckland. Economic recovery will depend on tourist arrivals in the coming months as restrictions ease. In calendar year 2020, the deficit in goods trade widened to 37% of FY2019 GDP, as a 23.7% decline in exports—mainly noni juice—outweighed the 12.5% drop in imports. Prospects for tourism earnings in FY2023 depend on border re-openings, following the low arrivals in FY2022.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The tourism-driven economy further contracted by 17.1% in fiscal year 2021 (FY2021, ended 30 September), following a 9.7% decline in FY2020. In the first half of FY2021, annual tourist arrivals reached about 3,400, a 91.8% drop from its pre-pandemic total of 90,000. Tourist arrivals slowly increased during the second half, with the resumption of a travel bubble with Taipei,China, and the opening of its borders to fully vaccinated tourists from the United States arriving via Guam. The economy is expected to grow by 9.4% in FY2022, with tourist arrivals projected to rise to 25,000. The risk remains that reopening measures may stall due to global uncertainties. The economy is expected to grow further by 18.3% in FY2023 if tourist arrivals return to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation, however, is also expected to rise to 4.3% in FY2022 and remain relatively steady at 4.2% in FY2023 due to projected trends in international commodity prices. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Following a contraction in 2020, the economy returned to growth in 2021, but only by an estimated 1.3%. Two surges of COVID-19 infections during the year significantly slowed the economic recovery. Having contracted by 21.1% in 2020, mining and quarrying dropped further by an estimated 12.5% in 2021. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries expanded by an estimated 3.7% in 2021, largely due to the low 2020 base—when output was hampered by lockdowns and trade bottlenecks. Growth in the rest of the economy remained generally weak. Growth is expected to accelerate steadily, with GDP expanding by 3.4% in 2022 and 4.6% in 2023 as a mineral extraction recovers and more normal global economic conditions return.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy contracted further, by 8.1% in FY2021 (ended 30 June 2021) as tourism, which accounted for 24.2% of GDP in FY2019, remained limited due to closed borders. Remittances rose by a record 6.7%, supporting household consumption and expanding foreign exchange reserves. Nontax revenues and grants from development partners helped fuel the budget. Though there a 3.0% deflation in FY2021, inflation is forecast to return in FY2022, reaching 8.9% as food and transportation prices rise significantly from high global oil prices and imported food costs. With no clear indication of when the economy will reopen its borders, GDP growth is forecast to grow by just 0.4% in FY2022, rising to 2.2% in FY2023. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy contracted by 0.5% in 2021, better than the 4.5% contraction in 2020. The improvement comes in part from a recovery in construction and in fish and crop production. However, this was not enough to offset declines in mining and logging, as well as the decline in services. The economic decline was exacerbated by political and socioeconomic tensions, which led to civil unrest in November 2021. The economy is forecast to contract by 3.0% in 2022 due to pandemic-related restrictions on mobility and transportation. However, it is projected to recover, growing by 3.0% in 2023 as COVID-19 restrictions ease and construction, fishing, and mining production rises. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The economy contracted by 3.0% in FY2021 (ended 30 June 2021) as all inbound travel was suspended, upending the tourism industry. Delayed border re-openings, competition for returning tourists, and disaster-related losses from the offshore Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption are likely to slow any recovery in tourism. In FY2022, GDP is forecast to slide further by 1.2%, but GDP should rise by 2.9% in FY2023 as the economy recovers. Inflation was forecast to accelerate from 1.4% in FY2021 to 7.6% in FY2022. The fiscal deficit was 1.0% of GDP in FY2021 as revenue fell, but increased expenditures in response to COVID-19 will expand it to 2.8% in FY2022. External debt is expected to ease from 41.5% of GDP in FY2021 to 38.4% in FY2022. Increased imports will leave the current account with a 1.8% deficit in FY2022, despite the large official transfers from development partners in the immediate aftermath of the volcanic eruption. 
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

Growth accelerated to 1.5% in 2021 as the country remained free from COVID-19. Capital expenditures almost doubled, offsetting low consumption—that led tax revenues to decline by a fifth. In 2022 and 2023, business travel and remittances are projected to return to pre-pandemic levels as international borders gradually open. GDP is forecast to grow by 3.0% in both years. The fiscal surplus narrowed from the equivalent of 8.7% of GDP in 2020 to 5.4% in 2021. As expenditures dropped by 13.0% and revenues fell similarly, the government expects a fiscal deficit equal to 9.7% of GDP in 2022, as the 27.6% growth in expenditures will outweigh the projected 10.6% rise in revenues.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.

The continued decline in tourism due to pandemic-related border closures led to a further decline in the economy. GDP contracted by 1.0% in 2021, after contracting sharply by 9.8% in 2020. Agriculture recovered after the damage from Cyclone Harold in 2020. Cocoa production doubled, copra was up by 25%, with beef production rising 10%. Construction also contributed to the recovery, as pandemic-related mobility restrictions eased. After reporting its first community transmission of COVID-19 on 5 March 2022, the economy is forecast to grow by 1.0% in 2022, as borders will likely remain closed until the second half of the year. The economy is expected to recover further in 2023, growing by 4.0%, with a gradual revival in tourism and continued expansion in agriculture and construction. These projections may be revised downward if there are significant delays in reopening the border.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2022.