Asia Regional Integration Center

The economic recovery after the devastating earthquake in 2015 is well underway with growth rebounding to 6.9% in fiscal year (FY) 2017, brought by normalized trade flows, favorable monsoon and expansive fiscal policy. The growth in paddy production of 21% eased inflationary pressures.  Fiscal policy was largely expansionary, funding recurrent and capital expenditures.

The economy is likely to grow by 4.9% in FY 2018, mainly due to the elimination of low base effect for comparison. Decrease in paddy production is expected due to the typhoon in August 2017. Downside risks to the outlook in FY 2019 arise from limited experience and capacity in all three tiers of government. The budget deficit may widen because of weak capacity to mobilize revenue in newly empowered provincial and local governments