The shift to a “new normal—less focused on investment and exports than building domestic demand—helped slow growth in 2015. Rising wages, labor shortages, and the short-term impact of supply-side reforms also contributed. Growth should continue to slow as coping with excess capacity adds to the mix of moderating factors.
The main risk is wavering market confidence as the shift progresses. Also, market uncertainty over possible renminbi depreciation could accelerate speculative capital outflows.
|Composite Stock Price Index 1||3.0 (Jan17)||3.0||3.0|
|Broad Money Growth 2||11.3 (Dec16)||11.3||11.4|
|Headline Inflation Rate 3||2.1 (Dec16)||2.3||1.6|
|Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3||6.0 (Dec16)||6.2||5.9|
|Merchandise Export Growth 3||-6.2 (Dec16)||-6.2||-1.5|
|Exchange Rate Index 4||85.5 (Jan17)||85.5||85.9|
|1 Monthly average, local index.|
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
|Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; CEIC Database.|