AEIR 2019/2020

People’s Republic of China

Economic growth slowed to 6.1% in 2019 from 6.7% in 2018. Increased special bond issuance by local governments led to moderating infrastructure investment growth in the first 3 quarters of 2019. However, consumption, the main driver of growth, decelerated due to the softening of both disposable income and consumption expenditure. Despite the reduction in value-added tax, both corporate profits and domestic demand softened, which led to a sharp decline in manufacturing investment. Net exports increased slightly, contributing 0.7% to GDP growth, as a phase-one agreement reached with the United States in mid-December 2019 brought a stop to new tariffs and reduced rates on some bilateral tariffs imposed earlier. The wide impact of COVID-19 on the economy will drive growth down to 2.3% in 2020, bouncing back to 7.3% in 2021.

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2020, ADB
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 3.0 (Oct20)3.0 2.0
Broad Money Growth 2 10.9 (Sep20)10.9 10.4
Headline Inflation Rate 3 1.7 (Sep20)2.4 3.0
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 6.9 (Sep20)5.6 5.8
Merchandise Export Growth 3 7.3 (Jul20)7.3 0.4
Exchange Rate Index 4 83.4 (Oct20)84.5 88.0
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; CEIC Database.

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