AEIR 2018

Growth accelerated in the first half of 2018 to 7.2% from 6.0% in the same period of 2017. This improvement reflected recovery in the Russian Federation and better relations with Uzbekistan, which boosted exports and remittances, as well as sustained robust public investment. Private investment, however, continued to languish. Industry expanded by 16.7% from a high base (albeit down from 24.3% in the same period of 2017) as mining grew by 19.7%, manufacturing by 22.2%, and electricity generation by 3.0%. Agriculture rose by 8.5% in the first half, up slightly from 8.4% a year earlier, thanks to favorable weather and wider area under cultivation. With a 7.0% increase in remittances boosting disposable income, retail trade expanded by 14.6%, raising services growth to 7.9% from 5.1% in the same period of 2017.

Growth forecast is maintained at 6.0% in 2018 with remittances and retail trade and services projected to rise further in the rest of 2018. For 2019, growth forecast is retained at 6.5% in anticipation of expected gains in manufacturing and mining, remittances, and the production of domestic alternatives to imports.

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2018 Update, ADB.
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Headline Inflation Rate 1 5.4 (Oct18)5.1 7.0
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 1 11.8 (May18)13.4 20.7
Merchandise Export Growth 1 14.3 (Dec17)14.3 42.6
Exchange Rate Index 2 294.1 (Nov18)294.1 275.0
1 y-o-y, %.
2 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: CEIC database.

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