A recovery in tourism and related sectors increased GDP by 31.6% in 2021, following the significant 33.5% contraction in 2020. Tourist arrivals rose to 1.3 million from 555,494 in 2020, up 138%. However, despite the surge, arrivals were 22.4% lower than in pre-pandemic 2019. Average inflation remained low at 0.5% in 2021 due to the government's administrative price controls and one-off discounts on some necessities and utilities. Assuming no major geopolitical fallout from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine or another wave of COVID-19 infections, increasing tourist arrivals and new large public infrastructure projects should drive GDP up by 11.0% in 2022 and by 12.0% in 2023, bringing GDP up 8.8% above its 2019 level.
|Headline Inflation Rate 1||2.5 (Jun23)||2.8||5.2|
|Merchandise Export Growth 1||35.4 (May23)||35.4||2.8|
|Exchange Rate Index 2||119.7 (Aug23)||120.1||120.1|
|1 y-o-y, %.|
2 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
|Source: CEIC database.|
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