AEIR 2018

GDP growth accelerated to 6.5% in 2017 from 6.2% in 2016, driven by a rebound in tourism and buoyed by continued strong growth in construction. After lackluster expansion in the previous 2 years, growth in tourist arrivals nearly doubled to 8.0% in 2017, mainly reflecting improved economies in the major markets.

Slower tourism requires a downgrade to the 2019 forecast, from 6.8% to 6.4%. The government aims to hold the 2018 budget deficit to the equivalent of 3.2% of GDP, with 70% of it externally financed. The 2017 current account deficit estimated at a large 21.7% of GDP will still weigh heavily on the current account balance, given the expected expansion in construction and higher oil prices. Risks to the outlook are the large external debt, low foreign exchange reserves, high dependence on shock-prone foreign borrowing and tourism, and escalating political tensions, especially in light of the 2018 presidential elections.

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2018, ADB.
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Headline Inflation Rate 1 0.2 (Sep18)1.4 2.9
Merchandise Export Growth 1 -39.5 (Dec18)-39.5 25.5
1 y-o-y, %.
Source: CEIC database.

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