The economy reversed its 1.0% contraction in fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ended 30 June), growing by 5.6% in FY2021. Industrial output grew by 7.8%, buoyed by fiscal incentives. Manufacturing was up by 10.5%, construction by 5.3%, and services rebounded by 5.7%, after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted. On the demand side, private consumption led the recovery, supported by government cash transfers and a record increase in remittances, along with an expansionary monetary policy. GDP growth, however, is projected to moderate to 4.0% in FY2022 due to slower domestic demand from monetary tightening, restrictions on automobile financing, and additional fiscal consolidation measures enacted in January 2022. Growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in FY2023 due to increased private consumption and investment. Greater macroeconomic stability is also expected to boost household and business confidence.
|Composite Stock Price Index 1||40.0 (Jul22)||41.0||47.0|
|Broad Money Growth 2||14.8 (May22)||14.8||14.2|
|Headline Inflation Rate 3||24.9 (Jul22)||21.3||8.4|
|Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3||-1.2 (Oct21)||1.6||21.9|
|Merchandise Export Growth 3||6.1 (Jun22)||6.1||57.2|
|Exchange Rate Index 4||354.8 (Jul22)||343.7||267.0|
|1 Monthly average, local index.|
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
|Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Federal Bureau of Statistics.|
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