AEIR 2021

GDP declined to 3.3% in FY2019 from 5.5% in FY2018, largely due to fiscal consolidation and monetary tightening measures agreed with the International Monetary Fund for a July 2019 approved Extended Fund Facility. The contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell to 4.1% in FY2019 from 6.1% in FY2018 as incomes fell. Despite the lower growth, inflation rose to 6.8% (from 4.7% in FY2018) on poor harvests, tariff increases, and the rupee’s sharp depreciation against the US dollar. Economic growth is expected to slow further to 2.6% in FY2020 as stabilization efforts continue amid the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in FY2021, driven by a rebound in investment as the rupee stabilizes and macroeconomic imbalances are corrected.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2020, ADB
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 45.0 (Jan21)42.0 42.0
Broad Money Growth 2 16.9 (Nov20)16.9 18.3
Headline Inflation Rate 3 5.7 (Jan21)8.0 14.6
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 8.0 (Sep20)0.8 -4.8
Merchandise Export Growth 3 19.0 (Dec20)19.0 8.2
Exchange Rate Index 4 268.0 (Jan21)267.8 258.6
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Federal Bureau of Statistics.

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