Asia Regional Integration Center

As COVID-19 containment measures gradually eased, the economy expanded by 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate .This was mainly due to a 22.1% surge in consumption and a 52.4% growth in fixed capital investment. The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)  declined by 3.2% during the quarter. Despite this, business and consumer sentiment remain depressed—the consumer confidence index remained below the 100-point threshold, while the business confidence index continued to decline from –16.4 in November to –23.2 in December. Inflation inched up to 5.9% in the fourth quarter, the highest in over 2 decades, exceeding the central bank’s 1%–3% target range. The release of pent-up demand after the easing of COVID-19 restrictions is expected to support domestic economic activity, while buoyant global demand for commodities should benefit the external sector. As of 7 March 2022, Consensus Forecasts projected that GDP will grow by 3.3% in 2022 and 3.0% in 2023.