Economic Impact of the United States’ Potential New Tariff Policy

RCI-POD

WEBINAR 37

Premiered on:
11 Nov 2024 (Monday)
2:30–3:30 (Manila time, GMT+8) (Manila)
Platform:
Microsoft Teams Meeting

Economic Impact of the United States’ Potential New Tariff Policy


The analysis of potential additional tariff increases by the United States’ (US) new administration, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, reveals that unilateral tariff hikes initially boost US nominal income through increased government revenue. However, retaliatory tariffs from other economies lead to a decline in US income due to contracting economic growth and reduced tax revenues. Real GDP in the US declines in all scenarios, with the negative impact intensifying when tariffs extend to its free trade agreement (FTA) partners. While the US trade balance improves due to reduced imports, other economies, particularly the People’s Republic of China, experience declines in nominal income and real GDP due to deteriorating terms of trade and reduced exports. Economies with FTAs with the US, such as the Republic of Korea, are expected to see positive effects through increased nominal income and real GDP due to trade diversion benefits.

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7 May 2024 9:00–10:30 a.m. (Manila time, GMT+8)
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27 Nov 2024 2:00–3:30 (Manila time, GMT+8)
(Manila)
2:30 – 2:35
Introduction:
Jong Woo Kang Director, Regional Cooperation and Integration Division, Economic Research and Development Impact Department, ADB
Bio
2:35 – 3:00
Presentation: Estimating the economic effects of the United States’ potential new tariff policy using the CGE-GTAP model
Young Gui Kim Senior Research Fellow, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
Bio
3:00 – 3:30
Open Floor Discussion