AEIR 2021

Economic growth moderated to 5.9% in 2019 from 6.2% in 2018, below its long-term trend of 6.3%. A delayed national budget resulted in a drop in public spending during the first half of 2019, but the economy ended on a high note with 6.4% year-on-year growth in Q4. On the demand side, private consumption contributed most to GDP; public spending caught up by Q3; and net exports grew. Investment plunged from 13.2% growth in 2018 to a 0.6% contraction in 2019. On the supply side, services contributed 70% of GDP growth with industry about 30%. Growth in agriculture remained modest at 1.5%. Inflation dropped by half to 2.5%. Tax revenue to GDP is at its highest ratio in two decades. The government debt-to-GDP ratio continued to fall. With the COVID-19 outbreak, growth is forecast to fall to 2.0% in 2020 before recovering to 6.5% in 2021.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2020, ADB
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Composite Stock Price Index 1 7.0 (Jan21)7.0 7.0
Broad Money Growth 2 10.5 (Nov20)10.5 11.6
Headline Inflation Rate 3 4.2 (Jan21)3.5 2.9
Industrial/ Manufacturing Production Growth Rate 3 -3.0 (Sep19)-9.7 1.6
Merchandise Export Growth 3 -0.2 (Dec20)-0.2 4.0
Exchange Rate Index 4 91.7 (Jan21)91.7 96.9
1 Monthly average, local index.
2 %.
3 y-o-y, %.
4 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: Bloomberg LP; CEIC database; Philippine Statistics Authority; National Statistics Office.

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