The twin shocks of Tropical Cyclone Harold in April 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic led the economy to contract by an estimated 0.8% in fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ending 30 June). Construction and tourism declined most. A deeper 5.3% contraction is forecast for FY2021 with further declines in tourism and delays in construction projects. Growth is forecast to return to 1.8% in FY2022. Inflation slowed to 0.2% in FY2020 and is expected to stay at 0.8% in FY2021. The fiscal surplus was 5.3% of GDP in FY2020, but is expected to narrow to 0.8% in FY2021, reversing into a 5.9% deficit in FY2022 due to tax weakness and grant normalization. The current account deficit widened to 3.8% of GDP in FY2020 and is projected to widen to 11.5% in FY2021 before easing to 9.4% in FY2022 as tourism reopens .
|Headline Inflation Rate 1||6.5 (Sep18)||5.7||5.7|
|Merchandise Export Growth 1||64.9 (Jan21)||64.9||-32.0|
|Exchange Rate Index 2||90.6 (Apr21)||90.6||88.2|
|1 y-o-y, %.|
2 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
|Source: CEIC database.|
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