AEIR 2021

The twin shocks of Tropical Cyclone Harold in April 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic led the economy to contract by an estimated 0.8% in fiscal year 2020 (FY2020, ending 30 June). Construction and tourism declined most. A deeper 5.3% contraction is forecast for FY2021 with further declines in tourism and delays in construction projects. Growth is forecast to return to 1.8% in FY2022. Inflation slowed to 0.2% in FY2020 and is expected to stay at 0.8% in FY2021. The fiscal surplus was 5.3% of GDP in FY2020, but is expected to narrow to 0.8% in FY2021, reversing into a 5.9% deficit in FY2022 due to tax weakness and grant normalization. The current account deficit widened to 3.8% of GDP in FY2020 and is projected to widen to 11.5% in FY2021 before easing to 9.4% in FY2022 as tourism reopens .

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2021.
Latest Month-Ago Year-Ago
Headline Inflation Rate 1 6.5 (Sep18)5.7 5.7
Merchandise Export Growth 1 64.9 (Jan21)64.9 -32.0
Exchange Rate Index 2 90.6 (Apr21)90.6 88.2
1 y-o-y, %.
2 Monthly average, January 2006 = 100, $/local currency.
Source: CEIC database.

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