Asia Regional Integration Center

GDP growth declined slightly from 6.5% in 2017 to 6.2% in 2018. On the supply side, the hydrocarbon industry expanded by 6.0%, well up from 1.7% in 2017. However, growth in the larger non-hydrocarbon economy slowed from 7.5% in 2017 to 6.2% in 2018. On the demand side, investment continued to drive growth despite a cut in government capital spending, supported by soaring export growth, due to the recovery of hydrocarbon prices and increased demand in gas from the People’s Republic of China. Growth in consumption weakened, especially private consumption, as inflation and a widening gap between the official and parallel exchange rate markets eroded real household incomes. Continued fiscal consolidation is forecast to slow growth to 6.0% in 2019 and 5.8% in 2020, but will be supported by further recovery in hydrocarbons.